Left: President Kiir; Right: VP, Dr. Riek Machar
By Kuir ë Garang
What I have
noticed about Dr. Riek Machar is that he believes if he sticks to the truth and
facts, then things will
work out well. For some strange reasons, he has internalized this morally
necessary but politically unpalatable reality. For a politician, this is odd,
and very much so. He has been pushing this narrative now for well over a decade,
that the world would side with him because he says the truth and President Kiir
does not. But as he very well knows, truth in politics is a casualty of
political schemes, interests and hypocrisies.
This does not
mean there is no such a thing as truth or that truth does not matter. The issue
is this: Truth, yes; but cui bono, who benefits?
Since August
17, 2015, when President Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar signed the agreement for
the resolution of conflict in South Sudan (ARCISS) and then revitalized it on September
12, 2018, Dr. Riek Machar labored under the bewildering assumption that
President Kiir will implement the agreement as stipulated in all its
provisions. He also believes that if President Kiir does not implement the
agreement, then peace partners and mediators will force him to ensure that all
the provisions of the agreement are implemented.
This is a
strange state of mind in politics, especially in countries Stuart Hall has
described as complexly structured societies. I can say South Sudan is one of
them.
President Kiir
has shown time and again that he is either not interested in implementing the
agreement or he does not know how to implement the agreement. This is a
warranted presumption. Why Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition
(SPLM-IO) still believes that President Kiir will change and implement the
agreement is beyond me.
SPLM-IO has no
political leverage. They only believe that truth and facts are on their side
and that regional leaders will see who is at fault. But Kiir is the president
so how regional leaders approach him is not as a subordinate or someone they
can force to accept their punitive dictates.
This is
something SPLM-IO must understand. Hear this again: They cannot, and will not,
force Kiir’s hand! He is their colleague even when they at times act
condescendingly toward him. IGAD leaders tried threatening Kiir like an
infant in 2015. We know what happened.
If President
Kiir must change, then that condition of change must be a political leverage
Dr. Riek and SPLM-IO develop, either within the region or within the country.
The agreement itself is not a leverage, but SPLM-IO believes it is. The case of the Tumaini
Initiative is a good example. It shows they neither have political leverage
nor are they taken seriously in the region.
Running to
mediators and regional leaders regularly to share grievances and the
contravention of the agreement by President Kiir will only prove to Kiir that
you are politically impotent and potentially becoming irrelevant. When regional
leaders share Riek’s grievances with Kiir as casual advisories among
colleagues, then any chance of Kiir taking you seriously dwindles with time.
Mediators and
regional leaders can only urge the parties to the agreement to work toward the
implementation of the agreement. That is all they can do. The people of South
Sudan suffer when the agreements are not implemented; but President Kiir does
not. He suffers no disincentive when he runs SPLM and ARCISS through the mud.
As a frustrated former Ethiopian Prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, once
said about the South Sudanese peace talks in Addis Ababa in 2015, the peace
process had become meta-talks, talks about talks, not talks about peace.
SPLM-IO and Dr.
Riek must find a way, through their own internal political mechanics, to force
President Kiir to implement the agreement. No one outside Juba will do that. When
President Kiir removed the minister of defense, Angelina
Teny, on March 3, 2023, all SPLM-IO could do was share their displeasure
and disenchantment with his actions. That was all.
It is time to
realize that SPLM-IO political relevance in South Sudan should no longer be through
the revitalized peace agreement. It must grow as a political entity. This is
time for a political make-over. Even when we all know SPLM-IO is not necessarily
on the wrong about ARCISS, and we know that facts and truth are on their side,
being doggedly fixated on R-ARCISS is a dangerous political naivete. SPLM-IO’s
long-term relevance should be through an institutionalized, coherent platform
as a political party. That is the future, and that is the future of South
Sudan. If Riek has no political leverage against Kiir, and facts to this date
show he does not, and if regional leaders only convey advisories to Kiir, then
it is time for Riek to change course. Political and strategic monotony is a
sure path to political oblivion.
SPLM risk becoming,
or it has already become, politically irrelevant. Unless of course being in
government and occupying functionless, but fat government positions is how SPLM-IO
wants to remain politically relevant in perpetuity.
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Kuir ë Garang (PhD), is the editor of The Philosophical Refugee. Twitter/X: @kuirthiy