In
my last appearance on Lagos based TVC news, I sounded a little more optimistic
regarding the prospect for ‘peace’ in South Sudan, a position that’d sound
naïve to anyone who’s familiar with the intransience and job-focused nature of politicking
in South Sudan. Anyone, who takes what South Sudanese politicians say
literally, risks falling into the unforgiving side of history. That is a good
thing to remember when it comes to South Sudanese political mechanics. However,
that shouldn’t mean a good step taken shouldn’t be acknowledged despise the
constellation of obstacles facing the peace process.
The Obstacle: Jobbization of National
Agenda
The
talks in Ethiopia are indeed about the future of South Sudan. However, they are
by no means tailored towards the future of the average South Sudanese. The talks, mostly about jobs and not peace, are
purely about personal ambitions and political positions. What Dr. John Garang
De Mabior saw as jobbism disguised as
patriotism among the Anya Anya II leaders is what’s characterizing the current
conflict. Almost everyone in the SPLM in opposition has grievances about a job
lost or a job one didn’t get. On the government side, it’s about protecting
one’s job not necessarily about standing up for the people of South Sudan. This
is a great obstacle for peace in South Sudan. As long as both parties don’t see
something written down, something that guarantees them government jobs and
ensure job security and longevity, we wouldn’t see the peace signed soon.
The Obstacle: IGAD, Medley of Incompetence and Dictatorship
Inter-Government
Agency on Development (IGAD) is credited as having successfully mediated the
peace process that culminated in Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005;
and eventually ended with the peaceful secession of South Sudan from Sudan.
However, a number of things have to be considered before that assumption takes
hold in history as having a definitive Truth Value.
CPA
was realized because of a number of factors we don’t see now in Ethiopia (Addis
Ababa and Bahir Dar).
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The documents aren’t
drafted by the very people who know why the war started in the first place. The
warring parties just receive IGAD drafted documents.
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IGAD isn’t mediating
but dictating the terms. A credible mediator doesn’t threaten but convinces the
warring parties. The fact that IGAD threatens the warring parties is a clear
indication of mediation and mediators’ failure.
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The key players in
Sudanese war took charge of the peace negotiations in Naivasha and no great
consultations were required outside the peace venue.
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When Dr. John and Taha
took charge of the talks, the world knew that the ideologues behind the
Sudanese religio-military, socio-economic and politico-racial dimensions were
at the table and could adequately reconcile the war paradigms and dimensions.
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Taha and Garang struck
a cordial working relationship that, to everyone, indicated that the language
of peace was here and that ‘peace was coming.’ We don’t see that now in
Ethiopia.
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CPA wasn’t about who
gets what job-wise, but the security of the agreement, fail-safe mechanisms for
referendum, resources sharing and everything that was in the interest of the
people of South Sudan. Now, in Ethiopia, it’s all about JOBS.
IGAD
has proven itself to be an utter failure. Garang and Taha were the ones who
brought the CPA. The leadership, moral courage and patriotism shown by Garang
and Taha have been replaced by self-interest driven talks meant to secure one’s
political survival. Mediators should create an enabling atmosphere for peace to
blossom. Instead, IGAD has created a poisonous atmosphere where the warring
parties don’t trust it. How can an organization mediate between two parties
that don’t trust it? This is a fallacy IGAD isn’t ashamed to maintain.