Now that the warring parties
have failed to sign a peace deal to end the 15-month old conflict in South
Sudan, the jittery public is asking: “What’s Next?” And ‘what’s next’ is the unquestionable reworking of the entire peace process. Winning militarily is an illusion.
In October last year, Prime
Minister Haile Mariam Desalegn told a press conference after the two principals
in the conflict failed to strike a deal arguing that changing the negotiating strategy
would not bring results. Bizarrely, he advocated for the same strategy that was
proving fruitless.
When the last round of the
talks failed [again] on March 6, Mr. Desalegn, however, seemed to have had an epiphany. Having
come to the realization that using the same strategy over and over without
results is foolhardy, the Prime Minister finally called for a change in strategy.
While we all understand that
the two principals have failed South Sudanese for having started the war and
failing to end it, we have to remember the mediocre method used by IGAD and the
patronage being exercised by the regional leaders and the African Union. In January, the deputy minister of Foreign Affairs, Peter Bashir Bandi, gave an interview to SSTV and what he said underlined what many of us have been advocating for for months. Mr. Bandi explained how South Sudanese brokered ways forward were frustrated by IGAD's mediation team. Anytime South Sudanese made progress at the talks, he argues, IGAD would postpone the talks without giving any reasons and without consulting the two delegations.